CBO Budget & Economic Outlook 2027–2037

What this countdown tracks

The Congressional Budget Office's Budget and Economic Outlook covering fiscal years 2027 through 2037 is expected in mid-February 2027, matching the agency's long-standing publication rhythm. The report sets the baseline deficit, debt, GDP, and interest-rate projections that drive congressional appropriations and reconciliation math for the year.

Background

CBO publishes its flagship Budget and Economic Outlook annually in late January or mid-February and follows with an Analysis of the President's Budget and an Update typically in the spring and summer. The January 2026 Outlook projected federal deficits averaging roughly 6.1% of GDP across the 2026–2035 window and debt held by the public reaching near-120% of GDP by the end of the period. The 2027 iteration will be the first full outlook under the 119th Congress's tax-and-spending decisions and will incorporate revised scoring for any enacted reconciliation package, extended TCJA provisions, and updated demographic data. CBO director Phillip Swagel, reappointed in June 2023, leads the agency's 275-person staff. The February 15, 2027 expected date aligns with the "within 45 days of the receipt of the President's budget" statutory guidance that has structured CBO publication timing for decades under Section 202(e) of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974. The CBO publication portal at cbo.gov hosts the full report, interactive data tables, and a concurrent "At a Glance" summary document used by appropriations staff.

CBO's projections are anchored to Treasury quarterly refunding data, BLS employment and inflation series, and Federal Reserve SEP releases. The agency supplements its deterministic baseline with probabilistic "uncertainty" fan charts published since 2019, quantifying 70 and 90 percent confidence bands around the central deficit path. Outlook releases typically generate a parallel Joint Committee on Taxation revenue table and a CRS summary brief within 24 hours.

Why the date matters

February 15, 2027 tracks CBO's statutory obligation to publish its annual Outlook shortly after the President's budget lands at Congress — which traditionally occurs on the first Monday in February (February 1, 2027 in that year). The CBO baseline is the starting point for House and Senate budget resolutions under the FY28 budget cycle, for appropriations committee 302(a) and 302(b) allocations, and for any reconciliation-bill scoring. Any significant revision in CBO's GDP, interest-rate, or deficit assumptions ripples through every fiscal-policy debate for the rest of the year. The date also matters because under the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010, the OMB's sequester scorecard for the fiscal year draws on CBO's baseline interest-rate path.

What to watch for

• Baseline 10-year deficit total and the marginal effect of newly enacted laws.
• Real GDP growth path and the 10-year Treasury yield assumption.
• Debt-to-GDP trajectory and the projected debt-service interest line.
• Social Security and Medicare trust-fund exhaustion dates.
• Discretionary vs. mandatory spending split under enacted caps.
• Revenue projections under current law — particularly individual TCJA expirations.
• Sensitivity tables illustrating how a 1 percentage-point rate change moves the deficit.
• Probabilistic uncertainty bands around the central deficit path.
• Comparison with the OMB Mid-Session Review from the previous summer.

Economic stakes

The Outlook directly shapes roughly $7 trillion in annual federal spending and the trajectory of roughly $28 trillion in publicly held debt. Treasury auction size decisions, corporate bond pricing through the Treasury term-premium channel, and forward guidance around Federal Reserve rate policy each incorporate CBO's baseline assumptions. For states, the Outlook informs federal-funds projections built into state budget frameworks; the National Association of State Budget Officers' Fiscal Survey of States references the federal baseline in its revenue forecasts. For rating agencies including Moody's, S&P and Fitch, each of which maintains separate US sovereign outlooks, the CBO projections contribute to the medium-term debt-sustainability analysis used to set rating actions. Private-sector forecasters at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bloomberg Economics typically publish comparison notes within 48 hours of release.

Related events to track

The Outlook lands in a packed 2027 policy window that also includes the FOMC 2021 full transcripts release one month earlier and the FTC v. Amazon antitrust trial beginning in late March. Fiscal-policy readers also cross-reference the US 2028 Presidential Election for the political context of mid-decade budget choices.

FAQ

When exactly will the CBO Outlook publish? Mid-February 2027 — the agency's publication pattern points to approximately February 15, 2027, following the President's budget submission.

Is the publication date confirmed or expected? Expected — CBO does not pre-announce an exact release date, but statutory timing narrows the window to the first three weeks of February.

Who is responsible for the report? The Congressional Budget Office, led by Director Phillip Swagel, with input from the Macroeconomic Analysis Division and the Budget Analysis Division.

Where can I read the report when released? At https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61049 and on the CBO publications page.