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Thursday, December 31, 2026 · 247 days away
Countdown
Humanity's Last Exam — Frontier-Model Saturation
Event overview
Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) was launched in 2025 as the hardest publicly graded reasoning benchmark. Frontier models are projected to cross 50% accuracy in 2026 — a milestone analysts compare to ImageNet's saturation.
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Background
A detailed editorial write-up for Humanity's Last Exam — Frontier-Model Saturation is being prepared. In the meantime, see the primary source for the most current information.
Source
https://lastexam.ai/Related countdowns
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Live odds from Polymarket (crypto-settled). Probabilities update every few seconds and reflect what real money is betting on the outcome. Cached here for 5 minutes.
Live prediction market
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
Most likely: Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
>99%
Implied probability
$282K
Volume traded
Live prediction market
Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
Most likely: Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
>99%
Implied probability
$310K
Volume traded
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