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Thursday, December 31, 2026 · 247 days away
Countdown
Humanity's Last Exam — Frontier-Model Saturation
Live odds from Polymarket (crypto-settled). Probabilities update every few seconds and reflect what real money is betting on the outcome. Cached here for 5 minutes.
Live prediction market
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
Most likely: Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
>99%
Implied probability
$282K
Volume traded
Live prediction market
Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
Most likely: Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
>99%
Implied probability
$310K
Volume traded
Not financial advice. Access varies by jurisdiction.
Event overview
Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) was launched in 2025 as the hardest publicly graded reasoning benchmark. Frontier models are projected to cross 50% accuracy in 2026 — a milestone analysts compare to ImageNet's saturation.
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Background
A detailed editorial write-up for Humanity's Last Exam — Frontier-Model Saturation is being prepared. In the meantime, see the primary source for the most current information.
Source
https://lastexam.ai/Related countdowns
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